I’m working with a client who is a leader in investment operations for a large corporation.
In a recent call, she casually mentioned she was building a Monte Carlo model for an analysis on a portfolio.
This took me back to my finance classes in college.
I didn’t love finance class, but one concept stuck with me: the Monte Carlo method. Years later, I realized it offers a fascinating way to think about career decisions.
Often my clients come to me in a similar place. They feel the inner nudge for something new but are not quite sure what that might look like.
They’re often considering 2 pathways:
The Safe Bet – considering roles where they can hit the ground running, minimize failure and mistakes, and be seen as valuable and a contributor right away.
Or
The Logic Move – they are looking at roles that make sense from a salary perspective or a commute perspective. They are looking at roles in a similar industry, or that are the next logical step in their career based on where they’ve been.
Do A Monte Carlo-Inspired Career Analysis
In my version of the Monte Carlo analysis, we will be exploring career pathways differently. We will not just be considering jobs that feel the safest or make the most sense. We will also explore a whole slew of scenarios and career possibilities.
Because most people only imagine one future for themselves. Career Alchemists intentionally explore many.
5 Steps to Monte Carlo Your Career Path
Step 1. Start With Your Vision:
We start like we always start … with a loose vision of where you want to land. What gifts, abilities and skills will you be using? How will you make an impact? What feels exciting? What would make you so happy?
Here is my loosely held vision that I used for this exercise. “I desire a career that gives me creative freedom, financial abundance, meaningful work, energy at the end of the day, time for my friends and family and fun adventures. In my career, I am fulfilled when I am helping women trust themselves, navigate meaningful work, build confidence, create authentic connections, and bring more joy into their lives. I like to bring in spirit-centered approach where we do oracle cards and follow signs for example. I like hosting events. I am organized. I like coaching with women in tech and product and women building coaching or consulting businesses. I enjoy speaking and doing workshops. I love creating fun and unique ways to connect to a career path and to play. I also enjoy writing a lot. I am at my best when I follow my mission of trusting life unconditionally, spreading Love in all its highest forms and having fun. The impact I would love to make is that I made a difference in changing work culture so it works for everyone. To move away from the current patriarchal frameworks to an equitable, creative and sustaining way of work.”
You can see I simply did a brain dump of all the things. I did not overthink it. Have fun with this.
Step 2: Use AI to Expand the Possibility Space:
The Monte Carlo method explores many possible outcomes instead of assuming there’s only one future.
In Step 2 ask AI: “Based on this vision, what are 25 different career paths I might pursue. Make sure to include obvious options, adjacent possibilities, unconventional ideas, entrepreneurial paths, and emerging roles.”
This will help us build out the possible outcomes that we bring into Step 3.
I received ideas you would expect like Career Alchemy Founder and Leadership Coach for Women in Tech and Product (uhh… already doing that) and a few unexpected like Career Columnist and Fractional Chief Inspiration Officer. Both peaked my curiosity and felt fun.
Step 3: Use AI and the Monte Carlo Technique to Simulate your Futures:
For each option that perks your interest, ask AI to imagine a career path over the next five years and respond to these questions:
- What are several plausible ways it could unfold?
- Consider different managers, market conditions, industries, promotions, layoffs, learning opportunities, compensation growth, fulfillment, work-life balance, and future optionality.
- Which paths appear most likely?
- Which uncertainties matter most?
My Result gave me these probabilities:
- Trusted Guide: 35%
- Corporate Culture Catalyst: 20%
- Movement Takes Off: 20%
- Creator Economy Expansion: 15%
- Human Advantage: 10%
Step 4. Look for Patterns and Alignment:
Now we move away from data and reconnect with our inner guidance system. Notice patterns. Ask yourself, with the probabilities spelled out and by looking at the different pathways, which options consistently produce futures that feel aligned with who you know you are becoming.
Step 5: Get Started:
Take the top 2-3 options that you are most excited about and take action. Do some deep dive research on the options. Who can you talk to that is on a similar path? What roles already exist out there? Maybe you even apply to 1 or 2!
In case it is not clear, this is all about Alchemy.
The Monte Carlo technique we used is not about predicting your future. Instead, we are increasing the probability of creating the future you truly want.
Because, though the data gives us great information, it’s our inner wisdom that gets us into alignment and on the path to careers and lives we love.
I’ll take that bet!
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